Good timing: The economics of optimal stopping

This paper presents an economic interpretation of the optimal “stopping” of perpetual project opportunities under both certainty and uncertainty. Prior to stopping, the expected rate of return from delay exceeds the rate of interest. The expected rate of return from delay is the sum of the expected rate of change in project value and the expected rate of change in the option premium associated with waiting. At stopping the expected rate of return from delay has fallen to the rate of interest. Viewing stopping in this way unifies the theoretical and practical insights of the theory of stopping under certainty and uncertainty.     

Interest differentials and extreme support for uncovered interest rate parity

This paper addresses two findings from the empirical literature testing uncovered interest parity (UIP): (i) more favorable results when interest differentials (IDs) are large and (ii) instability across samples. Simulations demonstrate that explanations of the results using large IDs based on the hypothesis of a “zone of speculative inactivity” are inconsistent with empirical evidence. Furthermore, it is shown that, if agents forecast IDs based on long-run values, coefficient estimates will be unstable if rates of decay in IDs vary significantly and, for ex post UIP to hold, IDs must decay in absolute value. This is consistent with OECD country data.     

A Review of Longitudinal Research in the Product Innovation Field,with Discussion of Utility and Conduct of Sequence Analysis

This paper examines how longitudinality is investigated in innovation research. A review of longitudinal methods in innovation articles, published between 2000 and 2011, is undertaken. Our findings show that longitudinal approaches to data collection are gaining some credence, in line with increased criticism of the overuse of positivist methods to study process‐based phenomena. However, results demonstrate a dearth of systematic longitudinal analytical methods employed in product innovation research. Static analytical methods are prominent. These inevitably lead to static presentation of results, and this is borne out in our findings. Second, the paper discusses the conduct and utility of a specific technique for product innovation research: sequence analysis. By drawing on two studies, which apply sequence analysis in product innovation research, sequence analysis is shown to be a useful technique to achieve rigor in analyzing longitudinal data. The paper concludes by discussing how such systematic methods for analyzing longitudinality in the innovation field demand greater usage and exploration.     

R&D Investments,Information and Strategy

This paper argues that firms can best realize the value of their investments in R&D by exploiting the associated information asymmetries. Attention is directed away from the physical results of R&D and towards the firm's ability, more generally, to earn rents from the private information emanating from its R&D. Four strategies may be used to exploit the information asymmetries from R&D: (1) publish the details of the innovation in return for legal protection; (2) keep the information inside the firm; (3) make the information selectively, informally available to others; and (4) disseminate the information as widely and rapidly as possible. To implement these strategies, resources may be allocated both to the commercial development of new technologies, and/or to related market opportunities (investing in other companies, assets and technologies). Of critical importance are the innovator's own skills and resources in effectively gathering, understanding, and commercially exploiting R&D-generated information asymmetries, both internally and in relation to other firms. This study should yield new insights to managers in designing strategies (and counter-strategies) to position themselves not only at the technological edge, but more fundamentally, at the 'information edge'.     

Learning from cost analyses: an illustration from the UK's New Deal for Disabled People (NDDP)

This article describes a cost analysis of an employment programme available to people claiming incapacity benefits in the UK. The NDDP was delivered locally by contracted providers called ‘job brokers’. The cost analysis found great variation among job brokers' costs and profitability, much of which seems attributable to differences in job broker size. The methods described here will be useful in evaluations wherever multiple institutions are contracted by governments to deliver services, especially when these institutions are involved in several different programmes.     

Claims,Concerns and Interests In British Credit Union Development

The British credit union movement has grown rapidly over the past decade, albeit from a low base relative to other nations. That growth has been led by a natlonal credlt union pollcy network. Thls article provides a detailed appraisal of the structure of that network, the motivations of its members and the relations between them.

This study highlights the existence of contradictions in the ‘policy space’ occupied by this network that have obscured the public interest In credit union development to date. These contradictions need to be resolved if the performance of the system as a whole is to be improved and public policy goals are to be met Increasing visibtlity ensuing from repeated endorsement of credit unions by the Labour government is bringing added pressures to bear on that network. New actors may be expected to enter the credit union polltlcal market as a result The irnpacts of entry, both positive and negative, are evaluated in terms of the coheslon and effectiveness of ihe credit union policy network.     

入美企业如何避开国家安全限制

2008年11月14日,美国财政部发布《2007年外国投资与国家安全法》（FINSA）的实施细则,此项法律旨在改革美国外国投资委员会（CFIUS）关于国外机构收购、兼并和接管美国企业国家安全审查体制。2008年12月,美国财政部发布了有关经过CFIUS审核认为存在国 家安全问题的交易类别指引，正式条例和相关指引传递的明确信息是，在个案基础上，CFIUS将保持其对外国投资交易进行国家安全审查的广泛自由裁量权。那么，美国这些法规的出台将会给我国企业以外资并购的方式进入美国市场带来怎样的影响？